We know that building a lot more housing can bring down prices. We’ve seen evidence around the globe, from Austin and Minneapolis to as far away as Auckland, or as near as Jersey City and New Rochelle, where we have seen major impacts on affordability from new construction. We have invited many people to live here by creating jobs and a welcoming environment, but Somerville has not kept up with that demand. This in turn has caused significant displacement as people are priced out. So what have we been doing for housing, and how much more do we need to do?
Over the 10 year span from 2000 to 2010, the Census estimates that Somerville averaged only 67 new homes a year. 2010 to 2020 was quite a bit better at 255 new homes per year. Since 2020, we have jumped to 409 net new homes per year — although it’s worth noting that 50 Webster Ave (the "bacon building") alone makes up 450 of those. These recent projects have been a major contributor to our city's subsidized housing stock as well. The vast majority since 2020 are built under our 20% Inclusionary Zoning rules, which means we’ve added about 400 permanently affordable homes in the last 5 years. Those are pretty decent numbers, but clearly not enough.
According to the governor's office, Massachusetts needs 222,000 more homes in the next decade to keep prices stable at our elevated price level. Even more would be needed to bring prices back down. Independent research suggests we are facing a shortage as deep as 886,000 new homes if we want to seriously bring down prices. A simple proportional breakdown would give Somerville a target range of 253 to 1,021 homes per year for the next decade. But that figure assumes every other city and town is just like Somerville, and builds like we do, and can support more residents like we can. It's true that Somerville is on track to deliver a meaningful amount of new housing, but we are still quite far from solving the regional housing shortage, and Somerville can and should do much more than other cities.
Why do we push for Somerville to build so much more housing? We believe that housing should be built where people want to live in an eco-friendly way, with transit-centered growth to create vibrant, walkable, bikeable, livable neighborhoods. That means leaving undeveloped and poorly supported land alone and building homes near transit stops. It means building the most in places like Somerville. After all, we have more MBTA subway lines than anywhere but Boston, and 100% of Somerville is within 1 mile of a subway stop. We also have a quickly growing bike network, strong safe streets processes, vibrant neighborhoods to share, and an aggressive inclusionary housing policy to prevent displacement. Therefore, building 1,000 homes a year should not be an aspirational target, but a floor that we set for ourselves if we want to be serious about solving our housing shortage.